Cultural imagery and statistical models of the force of mortality: Addison, Gompertz and Pearson

We describe selected artistic and statistical depictions of the force of mortality (hazard or mortality rate), which is a concept that has long preoccupied actuaries, demographers and statisticians. We provide a more graphic form for the force-of-mortality function that makes the relationship between its constituents more explicit. The 'Bridge of human life' in Addison's allegorical essay of 1711 provides a particularly vivid image, with the forces depicted as external. The model that was used by Gompertz in 1825 appears to treat the forces as internal. In his 1897 essay Pearson mathematically modernized 'the medieval conception of the relation between Death and Chance' by decomposing the full mortality curve into five distributions along the age axis, the results of five 'marksmen' aiming at the human mass crossing this bridge. We describe Addison's imagery, comment briefly on Gompertz's law and the origin of the term 'force of mortality', describe the background for Pearson's essay, as well as his imagery and statistical model, and give the bridge of life a modern form, illustrating it via statistical animation

Intrarenal Resistance Index as a Prognostic Parameter in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis Compared with Other Hepatic Scoring Systems

Background and Aims: Patients with advanced liver cirrhosis who develop renal dysfunction have a poor prognosis. Elevated intrarenal resistance indices (RIs) due to renal vascular constriction have been described before in cirrhotic patients. In the current study, we prospectively investigated the course of intrarenal RIs and compared their prognostic impact with those of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the Child-Pugh scores. Methods: Sixty-three patients with liver cirrhosis underwent a baseline visit which included a sonographic examination and laboratory tests. Forty-four patients were prospectively monitored. The end points were death or survival at the day of the follow-up visit. Results: In 28 patients, a follow-up visit was performed after 22 8 months (group 1). Sixteen patients died during follow-up after 12 8 months (group 2). Group 2 patients showed a significantly higher baseline RI (0.76 +/- 0.05) than group 1 patients (RI = 0.72 +/- 0.06; p < 0.05). As shown by receiver operating characteristic analysis, the RI and the MELD score achieved similar sensitivity and specificity {[}area under the curve (AUC): 0.722; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.575-0.873 vs. AUC: 0.724; 95% CI: 0.575-0.873, z = 0.029, n.s.] in predicting survival and were superior to the Child-Pugh score (AUC: 0.677; 96% Cl: 0.518-0.837). Conclusion: The RI is not inferior in sensitivity and specificity to the MELD score. Cirrhotic patients with elevated RIs have impaired short- and long-term survival. The RI may help identify high-risk patients that require special therapeutic care. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Accelerating exhaustive pairwise metagenomic comparisons

In this manuscript, we present an optimized and parallel version of our previous work IMSAME, an exhaustive gapped aligner for the pairwise and accurate comparison of metagenomes. Parallelization strategies are applied to take advantage of modern multiprocessor architectures. In addition, sequential optimizations in CPU time and memory consumption are provided. These algorithmic and computational enhancements enable IMSAME to calculate near optimal alignments which are used to directly assess similarity between metagenomes without requiring reference databases. We show that the overall efficiency of the parallel implementation is superior to 80% while retaining scalability as the number of parallel cores used increases. Moreover, we also show thats equential optimizations yield up to 8x speedup for scenarios with larger data.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Identifying null meta-analyses that are ripe for updating

BACKGROUND: As an increasingly large number of meta-analyses are published, quantitative methods are needed to help clinicians and systematic review teams determine when meta-analyses are not up to date. METHODS: We propose new methods for determining when non-significant meta-analytic results might be overturned, based on a prediction of the number of participants required in new studies. To guide decision making, we introduce the "new participant ratio", the ratio of the actual number of participants in new studies to the predicted number required to obtain statistical significance. A simulation study was conducted to study the performance of our methods and a real meta-analysis provides further evidence. RESULTS: In our three simulation configurations, our diagnostic test for determining whether a meta-analysis is out of date had sensitivity of 55%, 62%, and 49% with corresponding specificity of 85%, 80%, and 90% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations suggest that our methods are able to detect out-of-date meta-analyses. These quick and approximate methods show promise for use by systematic review teams to help decide whether to commit the considerable resources required to update a meta-analysis. Further investigation and evaluation of the methods is required before they can be recommended for general use

Master your Metrics with Calibration

Machine learning models deployed in real-world applications are often evaluated with precision-based metrics such as F1-score or AUC-PR (Area Under the Curve of Precision Recall). Heavily dependent on the class prior, such metrics make it difficult to interpret the variation of a model's performance over different subpopulations/subperiods in a dataset. In this paper, we propose a way to calibrate the metrics so that they can be made invariant to the prior. We conduct a large number of experiments on balanced and imbalanced data to assess the behavior of calibrated metrics and show that they improve interpretability and provide a better control over what is really measured. We describe specific real-world use-cases where calibration is beneficial such as, for instance, model monitoring in production, reporting, or fairness evaluation.Comment: Presented at IDA202

A comparative study on approximate entropy measure and poincaré plot indexes of minimum foot clearance variability in the elderly during walking

Background: Trip-related falls which is a major problem in the elderly population, might be linked to declines in the balance control function due to ageing. Minimum foot clearance (MFC) which provides a more sensitive measure of the motor function of the locomotor system, has been identified as a potential gait parameter associated with trip-related falls in older population. This paper proposes nonlinear indexes (approximate entropy (ApEn) and Poincaré plot indexes) of MFC variability and investigates the relationship of MFC with derived indexes of elderly gait patterns. The main aim is to find MFC variability indexes that well correlate with balance impairments. Methods: MFC data during treadmill walking for 14 healthy elderly and 10 elderly participants with balance problems and a history of falls (falls risk) were analysed using a PEAK-2D motion analysis system. ApEn and Poincaré plot indexes of all MFC data sets were calculated and compared. Results: Significant relationships of mean MFC with Poincaré plot indexes (SD1, SD2) and ApEn (r = 0.70, p < 0.05; r = 0.86, p < 0.01; r = 0.74, p < 0.05) were found in the falls-risk elderly group. On the other hand, such relationships were absent in the healthy elderly group. In contrast, the ApEn values of MFC data series were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with Poincaré plot indexes of MFC in the healthy elderly group, whereas correlations were absent in the falls-risk group. The ApEn values in the falls-risk group (mean ApEn = 0.18 ± 0.03) was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that in the healthy group (mean ApEn = 0.13 ± 0.13). The higher ApEn values in the falls-risk group might indicate increased irregularities and randomness in their gait patterns and an indication of loss of gait control mechanism. ApEn values of randomly shuffled MFC data of falls risk subjects did not show any significant relationship with mean MFC. Conclusion: Results have implication for quantifying gait dynamics in normal and pathological conditions, thus could be useful for the early diagnosis of at-risk gait. Further research should provide important information on whether falls prevention intervention can improve the gait performance of falls risk elderly by monitoring the change in MFC variability indexes

What do we know and when do we know it?

Two essential aspects of virtual screening are considered: experimental design and performance metrics. In the design of any retrospective virtual screen, choices have to be made as to the purpose of the exercise. Is the goal to compare methods? Is the interest in a particular type of target or all targets? Are we simulating a ‘real-world’ setting, or teasing out distinguishing features of a method? What are the confidence limits for the results? What should be reported in a publication? In particular, what criteria should be used to decide between different performance metrics? Comparing the field of molecular modeling to other endeavors, such as medical statistics, criminology, or computer hardware evaluation indicates some clear directions. Taken together these suggest the modeling field has a long way to go to provide effective assessment of its approaches, either to itself or to a broader audience, but that there are no technical reasons why progress cannot be made

A comparative study on approximate entropy measure and poincaré plot indexes of minimum foot clearance variability in the elderly during walking

Background: Trip-related falls which is a major problem in the elderly population, might be linked to declines in the balance control function due to ageing. Minimum foot clearance (MFC) which provides a more sensitive measure of the motor function of the locomotor system, has been identified as a potential gait parameter associated with trip-related falls in older population. This paper proposes nonlinear indexes (approximate entropy (ApEn) and Poincaré plot indexes) of MFC variability and investigates the relationship of MFC with derived indexes of elderly gait patterns. The main aim is to find MFC variability indexes that well correlate with balance impairments. Methods: MFC data during treadmill walking for 14 healthy elderly and 10 elderly participants with balance problems and a history of falls (falls risk) were analysed using a PEAK-2D motion analysis system. ApEn and Poincaré plot indexes of all MFC data sets were calculated and compared. Results: Significant relationships of mean MFC with Poincaré plot indexes (SD1, SD2) and ApEn (r = 0.70, p < 0.05; r = 0.86, p < 0.01; r = 0.74, p < 0.05) were found in the falls-risk elderly group. On the other hand, such relationships were absent in the healthy elderly group. In contrast, the ApEn values of MFC data series were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with Poincaré plot indexes of MFC in the healthy elderly group, whereas correlations were absent in the falls-risk group. The ApEn values in the falls-risk group (mean ApEn = 0.18 ± 0.03) was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that in the healthy group (mean ApEn = 0.13 ± 0.13). The higher ApEn values in the falls-risk group might indicate increased irregularities and randomness in their gait patterns and an indication of loss of gait control mechanism. ApEn values of randomly shuffled MFC data of falls risk subjects did not show any significant relationship with mean MFC. Conclusion: Results have implication for quantifying gait dynamics in normal and pathological conditions, thus could be useful for the early diagnosis of at-risk gait. Further research should provide important information on whether falls prevention intervention can improve the gait performance of falls risk elderly by monitoring the change in MFC variability indexes

Three-Dimensional Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography Data Analysis for Glaucoma Detection

Purpose: To develop a new three-dimensional (3D) spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) data analysis method using a machine learning technique based on variable-size super pixel segmentation that efficiently utilizes full 3D dataset to improve the discrimination between early glaucomatous and healthy eyes. Methods: 192 eyes of 96 subjects (44 healthy, 59 glaucoma suspect and 89 glaucomatous eyes) were scanned with SD-OCT. Each SD-OCT cube dataset was first converted into 2D feature map based on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) segmentation and then divided into various number of super pixels. Unlike the conventional super pixel having a fixed number of points, this newly developed variable-size super pixel is defined as a cluster of homogeneous adjacent pixels with variable size, shape and number. Features of super pixel map were extracted and used as inputs to machine classifier (LogitBoost adaptive boosting) to automatically identify diseased eyes. For discriminating performance assessment, area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics of the machine classifier outputs were compared with the conventional circumpapillary RNFL (cpRNFL) thickness measurements. Results: The super pixel analysis showed statistically significantly higher AUC than the cpRNFL (0.855 vs. 0.707, respectively, p = 0.031, Jackknife test) when glaucoma suspects were discriminated from healthy, while no significant difference was found when confirmed glaucoma eyes were discriminated from healthy eyes. Conclusions: A novel 3D OCT analysis technique performed at least as well as the cpRNFL in glaucoma discrimination and even better at glaucoma suspect discrimination. This new method has the potential to improve early detection of glaucomatous damage. © 2013 Xu et al